The Problem With Drafting Billy Hamilton

Me: Hamilton went $28 in NL

Fellow Writer: Godspeed my friends

Fellow Writer: Here's the problem I have with Hamilton

Fellow Writer: 1. Can he earn it, period, but also...

Fellow Writer: 2. if you draft him, you're almost committing to **avoiding** speed with every other pick

Fellow Writer: Your tactical options become very limitd with him, very quickly

Fellow Writer: He's the Adam Dunn of speed

Me: He's the linchpin of an entire offensive category. You will either finish 1st or last in steals, all dependent on him

Fellow Writer: Right

Fellow Writer: And that's not good

Me: You're going to take your Fielders, Cruz's, etc around him for power, so if the kid flops, you have nothing

Me: easier in Tout since you can trade, but in NFBC, man that's risky

Fellow Writer: Yep

Fellow Writer: He's on my no-fly list this year

Fellow Writer: No scenario where I end up with him on any team

Me: Omar Moreno stole 60 bases with a sub .300 OBP, but will the Reds let him play that much? I think they have to because as bad as he may be, he's still the best CF on that roster by far

Me: I have him as a rookie keeper in my home league - only way I'm owning him

Fellow Writer: They don't have any other options, really

Fellow Writer: Heisey and Bruce are emergency backups, but who can play out there regularly? Schumaker? Ah, no

Me: yep, which is why the PT concerns really aren't an issue for me. They'll give him a lot of leash unless they find some alternative via the final weeks as rosters get trimmed

Fellow Writer: But here's another thing... let's say he plays 145 games or so

Fellow Writer: is that 60 steals? 80? 100? He's unprojectable

Fellow Writer: There are no comps for him to determine what a realistic expectation is, and his PT last year was so specific that you can project against that

Me: I have him at a 45 steal floor

Fellow Writer: I have him at 80 for my projection/ranking purposes, but since I'm not drafting him anyway it kinda doesn't matter :-)

Fellow Writer: That's maybe even ** conservative** based on his MiLB numbers


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